FUD in the real-world. Target: the new Apple iPod Nano
 
A Reminder: Alexis de Tocqueville observed that it is easier for the world to accept a simple lie than a complex truth. Hannibal knew the same thing 1,000 years earlier. Today, if your company is in a serious jam, this human weakness can be very useful.        

UPDATE...A Business Weapon called FUD
(Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt)
Victim: the new Apple iPod Nano
(within the last 2 weeks...a vivid example of how FUD works) 

 

Last November I did a CorpWar issue on FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) as a competitive weapon. Basically I described how it works and why it's such an effective tool for giving your competitors a very bad day. It's cheap and simple. For better or worse there's no question FUD is truly one of the dogs of the modern corporate battlefield. 

An interesting thing happened after we sent that out. We immediately received several calls asking if we would help engineer FUD "campaigns" (a euphemism for "attacks") against the callers competitors. Since the calls came from longtime readers I took the requests seriously but declined. I declined not because I have anything against the tool but because I knew, in at least two cases, the idea was to use heavy FUD against other CorpWar readers, one of which is also a search client of mine and I'm extremely protective of my clients. So, after a couple of technical conversations, we took a firm pass. Unfortunately, I think one of those conversations was later put to effective use...

Let's flash forward to early last week.

I got a call from a reader that's a senior executive in the computer and music industry. He remembered the FUD piece and asked me if I would take a look at what's happening to Apple's brand new iPod Nano . The iPod Nano is a nifty little music player that basically blows away everything else in its category. iPods in general have a market share of between 40%-70% depending on who you ask. The Nano is designed to extend that dominance down into the lower end of the market where a variety of smaller, non-disk drive players are scrapping violently for sales. Naturally a new, and essentially perfect product (the Nano), put out by the industry death star, is very, very bad news to the scrappers.

So, what does a real Corporate Warrior do? Simple: you FUD the new product .

A rumor suddenly started circulating a couple of weeks ago that the iPod Nano has a particularly scratchable screen and that they could even shatter. The rumor quickly spread that the scratching issue was so bad that if you left the Nano in your pocket (where music players frequently live) the screen could quickly become marred to the point you could barely read the underlying text rendering it almost unusable. Supposedly this would happen even if the pocket was empty other than the Nano. I asked the fellow how the polymer in the Nano's screen differed from other iPods (none of which have a scratching issue) and he laughed vaguely amazed: "It's the same stuff!" He added there was a minor supplier issue with some breaking screens but that was being fixed immediately and they were repairing the Nanos that had broken. It was the rumor of the screens being so easily scratched that was the expensive issue. Some potential buyers were reacting as expected--holding off (the classic reaction to well crafted FUD). 

His question was simple: Did I know anything about who might be spreading the rumors (e.g. the FUD)? Well, in fact, maybe. But what's the difference? The attacker didn't even have to explicitly lie. It IS possible to scratch the Nano's screen (of course you can scratch a diamond too). The damage is done. FUD can be modeled via a contagion model because it spreads like a biological agent moving through a population. The more closed-in the population the faster the contagion moves. And few things move like good FUD since it doesn't require "old fashioned" physical distribution (air, touch, etc.) especially when it breaks out into the press where it can become an epidemic in a couple of hours . These days FUD can travel at almost the speed of light because that's how fast data move down optical fiber. Think about it. It's scary. But it's also an opportunity for the true corporate warrior, that needs to make sales, to survive.

So here it is just a few weeks in and the iPod Nano is felt by many to be somehow "delicate" (this is what it all factors down to). And that's pretty terrible for a portable music player. Although Apple's recent stock performance was blamed on the down grading by Merrill some blamed it on the perception that the new product has problems and this might somehow prove Apple was pushing new products to market too quickly, e.g. the perceived problems with the Nano's screen somehow demonstrating Apple was becoming reckless.

The funny thing (well, sort of funny) is the caller naturally thought that it might be one of Apple's big competitors that had initiated the FUD. Not necessarily. Knowing how flexible FUD can be in the hands of a clever corporate warrior, my response was simple: "Or, look for somebody very small. Somebody new that needs revenues badly and that can make them by mitigating a supposed flaw in the Nano's construction. Look around. They will be advertising or somehow in the press themselves for solving the problem." "You mean like a [music player] case maker or screen protector manufacturer?" "Exactly." I further described that a lot of people will buy the high utility Nano even if they think it has problems and, predictably, they will attempt to mitigate the problem via an accessory. It's the people on the fence that will be swayed by the FUD not to buy. And there are more than a few of them. (Note: I'm not one of them. I bought one for my plane. It's immensely excellent and I have yet to see any screen marring whatsoever.) Causing potential buyers to delay may just be a collateral effect. The real FUD benefactor here is the accessory maker who now has an accessory that's perceived of as a necessity . Very clever. Very good FUD unless you're an Apple shareholder.  

The underlying lesson here is it didn't take much effort on the front end to create the Fear, Uncertainly and Doubt. And it was created fast (in fact REALLY FAST) and cheaply.

Think about this the next time you're taking on somebody much bigger, or you're really big yourself and feeling complacent and untouchable.

Think about it...     

Please call us for your executive search needs.

--CorpWar: Compete like you mean it!--
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Tal Newhart
847.462.0632 dd


This newsletter is produced by Tal Newhart of Parcon Research.
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